Quarterly Letters

“Economies remain open. Companies are largely doing well. And financial markets, having seen these viral waves play out before, are buoyant.”

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

-Herbert Stein

In this quarter’s missive John Bird, our co-founder and CEO, shares recent leadership changes that have been made within the company to pave the way forward into our next forty years of business. Our CIO, Jason Ware offers analysis of the post-pandemic economic acceleration that we witnessed in the second quarter of 2021. Then, Senior Wealth Advisor Liz Bernhard describes the state of fixed income investing in this era of low-interest rates. Finally, an update on our office hours and available meeting formats.

It has been over a year since Covid-19 disrupted our lives. In this quarterly letter our CEO, John Bird and CIO, Jason Ware, look back on the last year and share their perspectives on how we at Albion and we as a country maintained our resolve through a very challenging time. They also look to brighter economic days ahead.

In this edition, our CEO, John Bird, reflects on 2020 through a unique investment lens and our CIO, Jason Ware, educates us on the markets and the economy. In Planners Corner, we hear from Doug Wells on why timing the market sounds easy, but statistically only works out about 10% of the time. Lastly, don’t miss the Women of Albion’s first 2021 event on ESG investing. Details can be found in the Albion Community section of this letter.

We are hopeful that the coming months and years look bright. The economy should heal over time. Interest rates and inflation are low. Meanwhile, we explore the question: Is now a good time to refinance my home mortgage?

Restaurants are shuttered, hotels vacant, air travel sunk, and gyms and theaters dark. The data are clear–we’re currently in recession.

John Bird shares significant Albion news, Jason Ware assesses the state of the economy, and Liz Bernhard reviews changes to expect from the SECURE Act.

We review international interest rates and their associated risks, balanced with the alternative of dividend stock income from favorable companies in this quarterly assessment.

President John Bird shares lessons on market forecasting and in place of the “bull or bear” duality he reviews what we can learn from the animal archetypes introduced by Philip Tetlock.

Contains lessons learned about investor behavior from the Theranos scandal, a review from our CIO of the state of the market, a tax strategy that uses charitable gifting, and an introduction to the newest member of Albion Financial Group.

Contains some thinking on Artificial Intelligence, a review of the market narrative ending 2018, and the KonMari Method held up to personal finances.

John Bird observes in “Prerequisite: The Attention Span of a Gnat” how the headlines of today quickly fade from the front page as we move onto the new and the next before truly understanding the facts.

We break down the history of tariffs in the U.S. as well as share our economic and market outlook which, despite the scary headlines, is still relatively rosy. We also question paying off debt versus building savings.

April is Financial Literacy Month and in the spirit of education, this edition of our quarterly letter will focus on different aspects of financial literacy.

We explore how we work with our clients to turn risk assessment into meaningful portfolio construction. We also provide our outlook on the market and economy including impacts, real or presumed, of the 2017 Tax Cuts.

We address the Equifax breach while highlighting steps you can take to make it a little harder for the bad guys to get their hands on your data. We also review the economy and despite the voices shouting from the rooftops.

We share our thoughts on the importance of disruptive change as a facilitator of long-term economic growth.

“All over the world, we’re seeing access to food, clean water, education and healthcare improve; as a result, global innovation is rising as well.”

~ Peter Diamonds

With 2016 in the rearview mirror, we examine the increasing rate of change in our globally connected world and its social, economic and political impacts.

“Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

~ Lewis Carroll

BREXIT – Why do we care?

“The most difficult thing is to recognize that sometimes we too are blinded by our own incentives. Because we don’t see how our conflicts of interest work on us.”

~ Dan Ariely

“It is health that is real wealth and not pieces of gold and silver.”

~ Mahatma Gandhi

“It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.”

~ Henry David Thoreau

“Remember that credit is money.”

~ Benjamin Franklin

“The nation should have a tax system that looks like someone designed it on purpose.”

~ William Simon

“I do not agree with what you have to say, but I’ll defend to the death your right to say it.”

~ Voltaire

“Plans are nothing; planning is everything.”

~ Dwight D. Eisenhower

“To the extent that people reach old age mentally sharp, physically fit, and financially secure, the problems of individual and societal aging fall away.”

~ Laura L. Carstensen, Stanford Center on Longevity

“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”

~Mark Twain